According to a monthly report by the US Energy Information Administration, US oil production could be over 12 million barrels per day by the end of next year.  Apache photo. 

US oil production expected to climb 15.4 per cent in 2018

In its monthly report, the United States Energy Information Administration says US oil production is forecast to climb over 12 million barrels per day (b/d) by the end of 2019.

The increase follows a pattern of rising output, mostly due to improved technology for shale production.

In 2017, US crude output rose by 5.6 per cent and, in 2018, US crude production is expected to soar by 15.4 per cent.  Should this forecast be realized, the United States will be the world’s largest producer of crude oil, ahead of Russia.

“Production growth in the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Russia will make up the majority of total global supply growth in 2019,” EIA Administrator Linda Capuano said in a statement following the release of the report.

The EIA boosted its 2019 average forecast by 40,000 b/d to 11.80 million b/d and increased its forecast for 2019 Q4 by 50,000 b/d to 12.02 million.

This year, The EIA predicts US oil production will average out at 10.79 million b/d.  Production is expected to average 10.91 million b/d this quarter and 11.29 million b/d by the fourth quarter of 2018.

Total US demand for crude is forecast to be 20.35 million b/d in 2018, 60,000 b/d below what was previously forecast.  The EIA increased its 2019 demand outlook by 10,000 b/d to 20.68 million b/d.

Should the forecast be realized, gasoline consumption in 2019 will be the highest annual average on record, overtaking the previous record set in 2017, according to Capuano.