China, India, Africa account for 32% of global energy consumption in 2015, 36% by 2040

China, India, and Africa are three of the most populated parts of the world and their economies collectively consume about one-third of all global energy.  Their energy consumption will grow faster from now until 2040 than any other region, according to the International Energy Outlook 2018 (IEO2018) from the US Energy Information Administration.

Changes in those economies will have significant implications for global energy markets over the short to medium-term, says the EIA, which released three IEO2018 reports that discuss those implications.

Key findings of the IEO2018 include

  • In all IEO2018 China side cases considered, China’s economy remains by far the world’s largest producer of energy-intensive goods in 2040. Faster economic growth in China leads to higher energy consumption, but the amount it increases depends on how quickly China transitions from an export, investment-led economy to a more service-oriented, personal consumption-based economy.
  • India is projected to be the most populated country with the fastest-growing economy in the world under all three India side cases; however, Indian energy consumption levels do not reach those in China or the United States in the next two decades in any of India’s side cases.
  • Higher economic growth across Africa leads to an expanding manufacturing sector and increasing industrial energy consumption because of possible regional competitive advantages. Higher assumed economic growth over the projection period leads to African energy consumption per capita that is 30% higher than in the Reference case in 2040.

China, India, and Africa collectively accounted for 32% of global energy consumption in 2015, and in the IEO2018 Reference case, these regions are projected to account for 36% of global energy consumption in 2040.